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Pakistan’s draft National Water Policy looks to a future dominated by the impacts of climate change, advocates water pricing and highlights regional cooperation challenges

 

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Ian Burton

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (unfccc) demonstrated international agreement that global co-operation is required to formulate and implement adaptation strategies.However, the development of further understanding of adaptation, and movement towards international agreement on what steps should be taken in order to facilitate it,has lagged well behind mitigation. This paper describes a variety of current perspectives on adaptation.It then moves on to report on the state of knowledge and thinking as reflected in recent research in Uganda, Antigua and Barbuda, and Pakistan. On this basis, the paper concludes with the identification of several possible approaches to the development of international co-operation on adaptation in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.

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Uploaded on January 2016.

Climate change is an established fact and its impacts on water, agriculture, health, biodiversity, forest and socio-economic sectors are quite visible around the globe. According to IPCC (2007), developing and the least developed countries are expected to suffer more due to climate change as compared to the developed countries. This is true if we scale down this fact to the community level; in case of any climatic anomaly the poor people face the consequences due to lack of resources and access to information. Anthropogenic activities are mainly blamed to be responsible for the surging trend of climate related disasters occurring in different parts of the world and marginal income people are the major sufferers. After industrial revolution, emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere increased drastically from industry and vehicular fossil fuel burning. Such gases have large warming potential and long life time to sustain warming process for decades to centuries. During 20th century, the increase in the global temperature was recorded as 0.76°C but in the first decade of this century 0.6°C rise has been noticed. Among 16 warmest years recorded over the globe, 9 top most were from the first decade of 21st century with ranks in decreasing order; 2010, 1998, 2005, 2003, 2002, 2009, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2001, 1997, 2008, 1995, 1999, 1990, 2000.

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Updated On January 2016.

National Economic & Environmental Development Study (NEEDS)
Malik Amin Aslam Khan
Dr. Pervaiz Amir          (LEAD)
Shakeel Ahmad Ramay (SDPI)
Zuhair Munawar          (SDPI )
Dr.Vaqar Ahmad          (SDPI)

Climate change is today an inescapable reality for Pakistan and is beginning to manifest itself through increasing intensity and ferocity. Pakistan is a country which, owing to its particular geographical circumstances, is highly impacted by any changes in climate making it one of the most vulnerable countries. Yet, it is one of the smallest contributors to the problem of climate change and can, thus, be termed one of the worst victims of “climate injustice”.
Dealing with climate change is no longer a choice for the country – it is an imperative which it has to cope with and adapt to in the foreseeable future. The country does not have the luxury of an “exit” strategy when it comes to facing up to the climate challenge. The costs associated with this interaction need to be estimated to a reasonable degree of accuracy to allow the country to plan, strategize and prepare for this challenge.
As stated, Pakistan is one of the lowest contributors to this global problem but, nevertheless, it has played a leading role in trying to formulate global consensus in addressing this issue demanding collective cooperation. Also, the country is cognizant of its development priorities and is actively seeking both, financial and technological support, to place its undeniable future growth on to a low carbon trajectory.

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National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy
Government of Pakistan
Ministry of Climate Change
National Disaster Management Authority 2013

The National Disaster Management Authority acknowledges its DRR Wing led by Mr. Ahmad Kamal (Member DRR), and his team members comprising of Mr. Muhammad Idrees Mehsud (Director DRR), Syed Sibt-e-Abbas Zaidi (Director DRR), Mr. Muhammad Ajmal Bhatti, PAS (Deputy Director DRR) and Mr. Abdul Latif (Assistant Director DRR) whose concerted efforts paved the way of formulation of the first ever policy on disaster risk reduction in Pakistan.
The dedicated team of international and national consultants (Ms Alexendra Galperin, Dr. Salman Humayyun and Syed Ahmed Ali) were the vital minds behind formulating different components of the policy document. Consultants alongwith members of NDMA team undertook necessary consultations with national and provincial stakeholders as well as all relevant state and not state actors involved in disaster management field.
Hats off for the support, facilitation and input provided by the relevant federal ministries and departments, particularly Planning Commission, Ministry of National Disaster Management (now M/o Climate Change), Ministry of Water & Power, Federal Flood Commission, Ministry of Defense, Pakistan Meteorological Department, SUPARCO, Geological Survey of Pakistan, ERRA, etc. Their invaluable suggestions and pertinent multi sectoral information made it possible for the policy to become a top notch recipe for resilient and sustainable development.

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Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy
Government of Pakistan Climate Change Division

An overwhelming majority of scientists, experts, and professional scientific organizations related to earth sciences agree that evidences are sufficient that climate change is real. Some may still deny this overwhelming judgment of science, but none can deny the devastating impact of increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Further, most of the experts agree that the major cause is human activities, which include a complex interaction with the natural environment coupled with social and economic changes, that are increasing the heat trapping CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, which are increasing global temperature and in turn causing
climate change.
The climate system is a highly complex system consisting of the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the Cryosphere, the
land surface and the biosphere, and the interactions between them. The climate system evolves in time under the
influence of its own internal dynamics and because of external forcings. (Source: IPCC). These interactions operate over a large span of spatial and temporal scales. Because of this complexity our understanding of climate change will always be limited.

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A District Level Climate Change Vulnerability Index of Pakistan
Arif Rahman Aneel Salman

In the wake of devolution and decentralisation in Pakistan there is a greater need to devise localised vulnerability to climate change indices as an easy reference for both policy-makers and the development sector. While global vulnerability indices are commercially motivated and based on country leveldata, ranking the degree of vulnerability to climate change across nations represents a ‘number’ aimed at directing, inter alia, development, disaster and aid efforts among countries.
These indices however, fail to highlight subnational vulnerabilities existing within countries being ranked.
Using the IPCC’s definitions of vulnerability in the context of climate change as a reference source, this study devises a district level vulnerability to climate change index for 22 districts of Pakistan. The Index shows that there exists a varying degree of vulnerability between districts and a further variation across the rural and urban divide of each district.

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Climate Data and Modelling Analysis of the Indus Ecoregion
Dr. Ghulam Rasul

Adaptation to climate change and building resilience among ecosystems and peoples to respond to climate variability and hazard threats are relatively new concepts. For this reason, networks for sharing experiences and ideas, especially between delta areas, will have a fundamental role in helping to address adaptation within specific ecosystems or sites. As well as regional collaboration, facilitating support from multi-lateral and bilateral donor agencies is crucial to enable on-going implementation climate change actions and improved governance, especially of water resources.

In January 2011, WWF Pakistan started a 5 year project with funds from the European Union’s ‘Environment and Natural Resource Thematic Program’ budget line (ENRTP). The project title is “Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Areas of Pakistan (CCAP)”.

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Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in the Coastal Areas of Pakistan (CCAP)
Nadia Bajwa andAli Dehlavi,World Wide Fund for Nature – Pakistan

The “Building Capacity on Climate Change Adaptation in the Coastal Areas of Pakistan”(CCAP) is a WWF-P project, jointly administered with partners LEAD-Pakistan and WWF-K, and with associates in India, Bangladesh and Iran who help cover Dasht and Sundarbans deltas besides the Indus.We are grateful to consultants and institutions whose work we commissioned and oversaw over the course of 2011-2012. The findings of their studies are synthesized in this report and we are grateful to them for participating wholeheartedly in path correction meetings and addressing reviewer comments. WWF Network colleagues and others who lent their expertise to the development of methodology – and also collaborated in fieldwork – are thanked by name in this synthesis report.
We would also like to thank stakeholders who participated in the Synthesis Report consultative provincial level consultative workshop in Karachi on 29 December 2012.
Further, we appreciate organisations such as SDPI, IUCN, UNDP, among others who took out the time to fill out a survey monkey questionnaire.
We would also like to thank Ms. Zubaida Birwani from Trust for Conservation of Coastal Resources (TCCR) for contributing PRK 85,000 for the construction of a fresh water pond at village Qadir Baksh Baloch, Kharo Chan. We would like to take this opportunity to invite other stakeholders to contribute towards CCAP's interventions.

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Plan or React? Analysis of Adaptation Costs and Benefits Using Integrated Assessment Models
Shardul Agrawala, Francesco Bosello, Carlo Carraro, Kelly de Bruin, Enrica De Cian, Rob Dellink, Elisa Lanzi

Financing for adaptation is a core element in the ongoing international negotiations on climate change. This has motivated a number of recent global estimates of adaptation costs. While important from an agenda setting perspective, many of these estimates nevertheless have a number of limitations. They are typically static (i.e. estimated for one specific year), do not differentiate between investments in various types of adaptation or quantify the resulting benefits, and are delinked from policies and investments in greenhouse gas mitigation.

This report examines adaptation and mitigation within an integrated framework. Global and regional costs of adaptation are assessed dynamically and the resulting benefits are also quantified. This is accomplished by developing a framework to incorporate adaptation as a policy choice variable within three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs): the global Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE), and the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model. In addition to reactive adaptation, the framework developed here also takes into account investments in adaptation “stocks” such as coastal protection infrastructure, as well as investments in building adaptive capacity.

This report presents the first inter-model comparison of results on adaptation costs using the emerging category of adaptation-IAMs. Results show that all types of adaptation options are important in offsetting some of the adverse impacts of climate change. In terms of timing, investments in building adaptation stocks become effective with a time delay, and should ideally be implemented early, while reactive forms
of adaptation become increasingly necessary as climate damages increase and the returns from preventive investments in adaptation stocks become limited. However, the total costs of climate change are the lowest when both mitigation and adaptation are undertaken in conjunction. Any least-cost policy response to climate change will need to involve substantial amounts of mitigation efforts, investments in adaptation
stock and reactive adaptation measures to limit the remaining damages.

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