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Climate change is a global phenomenon and a challenging reality for thinkers, planners, policymakers and professionals alike. It is a phenomenon that is likely to impact almost every sector of Pakistan’s economy. Today it stands not only as a major environmental issue but also as a multi-dimensional developmental issue. It was in this backdrop that the Planning Commission of Pakistan set up a ‘Task Force on Climate Change’ (TFCC) in October 2008 to provide appropriate guidelines for ensuring security of vital resources of the country such as food, water and energy. The key task assigned to the TFCC was to contribute to the formulation of a climate change policy that would assist the government in pursuing the paramount goal of sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges posed by the climate change.

 

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As concern increases over the impacts of climate change, policymakers are seeking cost effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which do not undermine the achievement of development objectives. The carbon market, which equates to over US$100 billion annually, is an important part of this quest as it allows those with high costs of abatement to pay others with lower costs to undertake emission-reducing activities. In this way, the overall costs of reducing emissions at a global level can be considerably lowered. As many of these low cost emission reduction opportunities are in developing countries, carbon projects could be beneficial for development as well as for addressing climate change. Carbon projects could offer a way of tapping into additional funds to finance development programs. 

 

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The report has been made possible by the support provided by GEF through UNEP under the project “GF/2200-97-57; Pakistan: Enabling Activities for the preparation of Initial National Communication related to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”. The project was initiated in 1999 and the execution and implementation of the project was undertaken by the Federal Ministry of Environment (MOE). The report attempts to provide a detailed analysis of issues confronting the Pakistani climate change planners. The process itself has been very consultative and has spanned a period of three years during which numerous stakeholders from the public, private sector, civil society and academia were consulted.
The preparatory process involved expert work undertaken by a consortium of specially constituted National Study Team for providing the necessary outputs as per laid down technical criteria provided for in the contract agreement between Government of Pakistan and UNEP. The project was provided policy guidance by a high-powered Project Steering Committee (PSC) chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Environment and comprising government and private sector experts in the area of climate change. The PSC held six meetings during the course of this study and four workshops were organized. A sub-committee was constituted and authorized by the PSC in February 2003 to undertake a consultative process of reviewing the final draft report presented to the PSC and compile Pakistan’s initial national communication in light of the comments received from different stakeholders and the guidelines attached to Decision 10/CP2. Pakistan’s initial national communication finalized by the Sub-Committee was approved by the PSC in its meeting on 3rd November, 2003.

 

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Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is di¢ cult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no signi…cant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the con…dence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend.

 

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What are the major determinants of green growth? What role can the government play to promote green growth? To address these questions, this paper develops a simple Green Solow model that sheds light on the role of finance and technology in the process of green growth. The empirical section of the article augments this canonical green growth model to include structural variables relating to finance, technological development, trade openness, natural resource exploitations, and areas where the government can play an important role. In addition, the use of the spatially-corrected generalized method moments approach affords us to explore the role of such factors as growth performance of the neighboring countries, domestic learning or determination to achieve its national desired target, and political and economic shocks in the process of green growth. It is hoped that research reported in the paper will stimulate further research in the area.

 

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This review focuses on disaster loss and damage database implementation at country and regional levels. It documents UNDP’s role in the institutionalization of such systems and examines all known, publically-accessible regional and country-level databases’ contents. The findings and lessons provide a basis for a set of conclusions and recommendations to enhance the quality, credibility and usability of these data with the aim of informing future UNDP and international support in this area.

 

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Around 50% of people, almost all in developing countries, rely on coal and biomass in the form of wood, dung and crop residues for domestic energy. These materials are typically burnt in simple stoves with very incomplete combustion. Consequently, women and young children are exposed to high levels of indoor air pollution every day. There is consistent evidence that indoor air pollution increases the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and of acute respiratory infections in childhood, the most important cause of death among children under 5 years of age in developing countries. Evidence also exists of associations with low birth weight, increased infant and perinatal mortality, pulmonary tuberculosis, nasopharyngeal and laryngeal cancer, cataract, and, specifically in
respect of the use of coal, with lung cancer. Conflicting evidence exists with regard to asthma. All studies are observational and very few have measured exposure directly, while a substantial proportion have not dealt with confounding. As a result, risk estimates are poorly quantified and may be biased. Exposure to indoor air pollution may be responsible for nearly 2 million excess deaths in developing countries and for some 4% of the global burden of disease. Indoor air pollution is a major global public health threat requiring greatly increased efforts in the areas of research and policy-making. Research on its health effects should be strengthened, particularly in relation to tuberculosis and acute lower respiratory infections. A more systematic approach to the development and evaluation of interventions is desirable, with clearer recognition of the interrelationships between poverty and dependence on polluting fuels.

 

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The policy recommendations of most economists are based on the rational actor model. The emphasis is on achieving efficient allocation by insuring that property rights are completely assigned and that market failures are corrected. This paper takes the position that so-called behavioral “anomalies” are central to human decision-making and, therefore, should be the starting point for effective economic policies. This contention is supported by game theory experiments involving humans and closely related primates. This research suggests that the standard economic approach to climate change policy, with its focus on narrowly rational,self-regarding responses to monetary incentives, is seriously flawed.

 

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The ideas contained in this Interim Full Report represent the culmination of 18 months of analysis and consultation among Task Force members and others, as well as the results of substantial debate and interchange among the members of the Task Force. A first draft of this report was prepared based on the inputs of Task Force members at a Task Force meeting in May 2003 in Nairobi, a subsequent meeting of a sub-set of members in August 2003 in Stockholm, a further meeting of the task force in October 2003, and through electronic discussions. The paper
frequently draws directly on various reports, memoranda and studies, the details of which are indicated in the relevant footnotes. This Interim Report complements a companion short document prepared directly by the Task Force -- the Summary Interim Report of the Task Force, which serves both as a free-standing statement of the main propositions of the Task Force and the Executive Summary of this Report. The Full Interim Report contains substantial additional material substantiating the principal arguments in the Summary Interim Report, but no change in the argument itself. This full Interim Report has been prepared by a writing and editing group consisting of Kristen Lewis, Task Force Manager; Jennifer Davis, Task Force Member (who took the lead in the preparation of Chapter 6); and Albert Wright and Roberto Lenton, Task Force Coordinators. The editors wish to acknowledge, with thanks, the extensive contributions of several people and organizations to the development of this paper. In particular, we would like to thank UNDESA, UNICEF, UNDP, UNEP and the World Bank, whose documents we drew on extensively in several parts of this report; Guido Schmidt-Traub, for the section on financing requirements and costing methodologies; Malin Falkenmark, member of Task Force 6, for permission to include a recent memorandum on water and the MDGs in section 7.B of this report; and Christie Walkuski, for her generous assistance in the preparation and finalization of the report as a whole, including the annexes and figures, under significant time pressure. The co-coordinators take full responsibility for any errors or omissions in the contents of this report.

 

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