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Climate change is a global phenomenon and a challenging reality for thinkers, planners, policymakers and professionals alike. It is a phenomenon that is likely to impact almost every sector of Pakistan’s economy. Today it stands not only as a major environmental issue but also as a multi-dimensional developmental issue. It was in this backdrop that the Planning Commission of Pakistan set up a ‘Task Force on Climate Change’ (TFCC) in October 2008 to provide appropriate guidelines for ensuring security of vital resources of the country such as food, water and energy. The key task assigned to the TFCC was to contribute to the formulation of a climate change policy that would assist the government in pursuing the paramount goal of sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges posed by the climate change.

 

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As concern increases over the impacts of climate change, policymakers are seeking cost effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which do not undermine the achievement of development objectives. The carbon market, which equates to over US$100 billion annually, is an important part of this quest as it allows those with high costs of abatement to pay others with lower costs to undertake emission-reducing activities. In this way, the overall costs of reducing emissions at a global level can be considerably lowered. As many of these low cost emission reduction opportunities are in developing countries, carbon projects could be beneficial for development as well as for addressing climate change. Carbon projects could offer a way of tapping into additional funds to finance development programs. 

 

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The report has been made possible by the support provided by GEF through UNEP under the project “GF/2200-97-57; Pakistan: Enabling Activities for the preparation of Initial National Communication related to UN Framework Convention on Climate Change”. The project was initiated in 1999 and the execution and implementation of the project was undertaken by the Federal Ministry of Environment (MOE). The report attempts to provide a detailed analysis of issues confronting the Pakistani climate change planners. The process itself has been very consultative and has spanned a period of three years during which numerous stakeholders from the public, private sector, civil society and academia were consulted.
The preparatory process involved expert work undertaken by a consortium of specially constituted National Study Team for providing the necessary outputs as per laid down technical criteria provided for in the contract agreement between Government of Pakistan and UNEP. The project was provided policy guidance by a high-powered Project Steering Committee (PSC) chaired by the Secretary, Ministry of Environment and comprising government and private sector experts in the area of climate change. The PSC held six meetings during the course of this study and four workshops were organized. A sub-committee was constituted and authorized by the PSC in February 2003 to undertake a consultative process of reviewing the final draft report presented to the PSC and compile Pakistan’s initial national communication in light of the comments received from different stakeholders and the guidelines attached to Decision 10/CP2. Pakistan’s initial national communication finalized by the Sub-Committee was approved by the PSC in its meeting on 3rd November, 2003.

 

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Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is di¢ cult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no signi…cant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the con…dence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend.

 

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What are the major determinants of green growth? What role can the government play to promote green growth? To address these questions, this paper develops a simple Green Solow model that sheds light on the role of finance and technology in the process of green growth. The empirical section of the article augments this canonical green growth model to include structural variables relating to finance, technological development, trade openness, natural resource exploitations, and areas where the government can play an important role. In addition, the use of the spatially-corrected generalized method moments approach affords us to explore the role of such factors as growth performance of the neighboring countries, domestic learning or determination to achieve its national desired target, and political and economic shocks in the process of green growth. It is hoped that research reported in the paper will stimulate further research in the area.

 

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